Oil demand is projected to increase from nearly 100 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 to around 109 MMbpd in 2045, according to OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO) report.
The 2020 WOO forecasts that oil demand in non-OECD countries will rise by 22.5 MMbpd over the next few decades, from nearly 52 MMbpd in 2019 to 74 MMbpd in 2045. India is expected to be the largest contributor to incremental demand, adding around 6.3 MMbpd between 2019 and 2045. Oil demand in OECD countries is predicted to plateau at around 47 MMbpd during the period 2022-2025 before starting a longer-term decline towards 35 MMbpd by 2045.
Road transportation is expected to continue to dominate the sectoral breakdown of oil demand, but the largest growth is forecasted to come from petrochemicals. Oil demand in the aviation sector is projected to partly recover in 2021 and to continue growing thereafter.
The WOO noted that the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand in living memory. Assuming that the pandemic is largely contained by next year, oil demand is expected to partly recover in 2021.
“In a year without precedent, we are very proud to bring you this exceptional edition of the WOO with the hope that it enriches the global energy dialogue and inspires closer cooperation,” Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, the OPEC secretary general, said in an organization statement.
“As we turn an important page in our history, OPEC’s commitment to securing an efficient, economic and steady supply of oil to consuming countries, and providing essential support to the global economy, is as unshakable today as it was when the organization was founded 60 years ago,” he added.
The 2020 WOO was launched via videoconference in Vienna, Austria, and extended its outlook to 2045 for the first time. The launch featured remarks by Rainer Seele, the CEO of Austrian oil and gas company OMV, and Jonas Puck, the academic director of the MBA in Energy Management program at the executive academy of the Vienna University of Economics and Business.
OPEC noted that the 2020 WOO launch represents the culmination of months of planning, writing, review and production under “unique” circumstances, as this year’s edition was in large part carried out remotely.
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